Week 9 · 2026
ESPN Projections
| Projected line | Projection | Call |
|---|---|---|
| One Big Beautiful Dillbot −18.2 overSwift kick in the Dak | 128.2 – 110.0 | Undecided |
| Gibbed for your pleasure −31.8 overThe ChoSimba Ones | 140.3 – 108.5 | Undecided |
| Remember the Nice Guys, ChatGPT −8.6 overI am dead inside | 125.5 – 116.9 | Undecided |
| 2x Runner Up −1.6 overCornstar | 103.6 – 102.0 | Undecided |
| God's Commissioner −4.9 overTrick or Trick It’s Mike Vick | 125.1 – 120.2 | Undecided |
| Tuten Your Mother, Respectfully −6.9 overReturn of the IDP | 128.8 – 121.9 | Undecided |
Captured Nov 5, 2026 · 1:24 PM PST, before kickoff
The Preview
Week 9 gives us the most wins in league history against the most losses in league history, the reigning champ’s second helping of Dillon, and a rookie starting a kicker on injured reserve. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are the only teams off, so the schedule has just one real victim this week, and it’s the commish. Next week it’s Luke, who should start preparing a statement.
Put this one in a museum: God’s Commissioner has 100 career wins, Trick or Trick It’s Mike Vick has 103 career losses, and nobody in the history of this league has more of either. Wade celebrated the milestone by releasing Geno Smith one week after Geno’s 20-point start, like a rented tux going back to the store, and dropped Bryce Young for good measure, so Caleb Williams finally comes out of the driveway as the only quarterback on the roster. That’s a bold plan when your only quarterback is on bye next week, and it’s bolder with Tony Pollard off after scoring 62 in two weeks, which is how the first-place team ends up fifth in the projections. Nate, last week’s Biggest Choke, answers with a 91-point average over the last three weeks and Alvin Kamara, fresh off Zach’s curb and headed straight to the bench. The model leans Wade and so do I, because nobody gets to 103 by accident. Wade.
Welcome to part two of the documentary. Part one ended 140.9 to 72.5, and The ChoSimba Ones prepared for the rematch by picking up Adonai Mitchell, a receiver Wade claimed off waivers this week and let go, which makes Wade less of a trade partner at this point than a supplier. Here’s the part I can’t stop thinking about: Dillon’s last starter of the week is Colston Loveland on Sunday night, so Dillon’s whole season-saving effort ends with Loveland catching passes from Caleb Williams, the quarterback Dillon traded to Wade, with every one of Caleb’s points going to somebody else. DK Metcalf is on bye, which after last week’s 0.9 is barely a demotion. Gibbed for your pleasure has the top projection in the league, gets George Kittle back, and has shown no interest in treating this as a contest. Dillon still has the best career winning percentage of any active manager, and is working very hard to fix that. Jack.
This is the only game on the slate between two teams with winning records, and they took very different roads to get here. Tuten Your Mother, Respectfully is 6-2 on Joe Burrow’s 44.4 and a trade machine that has stopped making sense even to itself: Zach traded for Kamara in Week 7, got one game and 9.7 points out of him, sat through the bye, and dropped him, so the receipt is still warm and the player is on Nate’s bench. Return of the IDP is 5-3 on a much simpler plan, which is having Josh Allen, and now Christian McCaffrey is back from his bye too. Zach has three starters tonight and Jono has none, while Allen closes the whole week on Monday night, so whatever lead Zach builds, Jono gets the last word on it. Zach is somehow 9-17 all-time against Jono, which won’t decide a thing on Sunday, but I wanted Zach to have to read it. I’ll take the team scoring 133 a game over the last three. Zach.
Swift kick in the Dak has David Montgomery in the starting lineup, and Montgomery is out, and I feel like I’ve written this before, because I have, in Week 7. This is Montgomery’s third week on the roster and he hasn’t scored a point for it, while Kaelon Black and Dylan Sampson sit on the bench with actual projections, so move one of them in, Shawnee. It might matter, because the reigning sacko nearly erased a 44-point deficit last week, and with D’Andre Swift on Sunday night and James Cook III on Monday night, the next comeback is already on the calendar. One Big Beautiful Dillbot gets Brock Purdy, Malik Nabers and the kicker back, has the third-best projection in the league, and at 4-4 is somehow 96% to make the playoffs, which I’ve been asked not to find attractive. Grant.
Last year these two finished second and third. This year Remember the Nice Guys, ChatGPT is 3-4-1 and I am dead inside is 3-5, and that team name has started reading less like a joke and more like a status report. Trevor’s playoff odds are 4%, Drake London scored 1.3 last week, and the best decision of Trevor’s whole season might be letting Michael Penix Jr. go one week before he scored -1.9 for somebody else. Kevin just ended a three-game skid by scoring 50 before most of the league had played a snap, is still sitting on exactly 100 career losses, and at 21% to make the playoffs finally has something to lose besides that number. Kevin.
The two lowest projections in the league meet in a rematch of Week 3, when Cornstar won by 60, and the rookie has one problem to solve first. Tyler Loop is in Lexi’s starting lineup at kicker, Loop is on injured reserve, there’s no other kicker on the roster, and Loop’s game is tonight, so go get somebody off the wire, Lexi, because any working kicker at all makes you the favorite. And Jono, you’re not even playing your wife this week, so you have no excuse for letting this one slide. 2x Runner Up gets C.J. Stroud back from his bye and has released Penix, which makes two managers in two weeks who’ve thrown him back, but eight of Luke’s players are on bye next week, so this is the last real lineup you’ll see from that roster until Week 11, and it’s still projected for almost nothing. I picked Lexi in Week 7 and she lost by 30, then I faded her last week and she won, so the only move left is to pick her again and hope I’ve finally got the timing right. Lexi.
So here’s the card. Zach vs Jono is the Game of the Week because it’s the only one where both teams have earned the attention, and Allen gets to finish it on Monday night. The Lock is Jack, because the top projection in the league gets to play a team it just beat by 68. The Upset Alert is Lexi, on the condition that she starts someone who is allowed to kick. And the Bold Prediction is for Dillon’s benefit: Caleb Williams outscores Jared Goff and Colston Loveland combined, and Dillon gets to watch it live on Sunday night.
🔮 Picks
- Game of the Week — Tuten Your Mother, Respectfully vs Return of the IDP — the only game between two winning teams, with Zach opening tonight and Josh Allen closing on Monday night.
- Lock of the Week — Gibbed for your pleasure — the top projection in the league against a team it just beat by 68.
- Upset Alert — Cornstar — the model leans Luke; I lean the rookie, provided she starts a kicker who’s allowed to kick.
- Bold Prediction — Caleb Williams outscores Jared Goff and Colston Loveland combined, and Dillon watches it live on Sunday night.
Power Rankings
Claude's subjective take on how the teams stack up heading into the week — weighing roster composition, recent matchups and scoring trends, key injuries, and any trades or pickups. Set at the start of the week, alongside the preview; the arrow shows the move from last week.
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1
—
Still No. 1 on a 146 average over three weeks, with Pollard on bye and exactly one quarterback left on the roster.
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2
—
Stays second after a 68-point win, and the prize for beating Dillon that badly is getting to do it again.
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3
▲1
Up one on a three-game streak and Burrow's 44.4; Kamara lasted two weeks and is somebody else's problem now.
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4
▼1
Down one after scoring 131.8 and losing anyway; Purdy and Nabers coming back is about the best apology available.
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5
—
Holds at five because Josh Allen's 28.4 was enough to cover for a kicker who finished below zero.
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6
▲3
Up three on a 50-point Thursday night and a snapped skid, and still stuck at exactly 100 career losses.
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7
▲1
Up one after Allgeier's 33.6 ended the skid; the kicker's on injured reserve and the lineup hasn't heard.
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8
▼2
Down two, because a 91 average over three weeks will do that; Kamara arrives off Zach's curb to help from the bench.
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9
▼2
Down two now that the Dillon portion of the schedule is over; Dowdle and the Steelers defense are off this week.
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10
—
Holds at ten on a 96 average over three, with a Monday-night run that fell 9.5 short and Montgomery still in the lineup.
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11
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Still eleventh on an 87 average over three, and it took a 72.5 and arming the first-place team to stay there.
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12
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Still twelfth, one -1.9 quarterback lighter, with eight players on bye next week, so enjoy having a lineup.