Week 7 · 2026
ESPN Projections
| Projected line | Projection | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Gibbed for your pleasure −11.3 overRemember the Nice Guys, ChatGPT | 132.4 – 121.1 | Called it |
| One Big Beautiful Dillbot −20.4 over2x Runner Up | 131.6 – 111.2 | Called it |
| The ChoSimba Ones −9.2 overI am dead inside | 118.5 – 109.3 | Upset |
| Return of the IDP −8.9 overGod's Commissioner | 121.5 – 112.6 | Upset |
| Trick or Trick It’s Mike Vick −25.4 overSwift kick in the Dak | 120.2 – 94.8 | Called it |
| Tuten Your Mother, Respectfully −5.4 overCornstar | 119.7 – 114.3 | Called it |
Captured Oct 22, 2026 · 11:48 AM PDT, before kickoff
The Recap
Week 7 had no drama, just damage. The closest game on the slate was decided by 23 points, the commish dropped 156 after I told him in writing how to fix his lineup, and both upsets landed on teams I picked to win.
Last week I pointed out, in public, that God’s Commissioner had an empty lineup slot with Tony Pollard sitting on the bench, and then I picked against Wade because of it. Wade read the preview, put Pollard in the slot, and Pollard scored 35.0, the best individual game of the week, so the commish beat my pick with my own advice. Zay Flowers (23.7) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (26.8 on Sunday night) piled on for the week’s top score, 156.2, which was 43.6 over projection and plenty to bury Bryce Young’s 6.3 at quarterback. Return of the IDP didn’t play badly, with Jameson Williams turning an 8.9 projection into 23.6 and Aaron Rodgers scoring 14.0 against the man who waived him, more than double what Wade got from the quarterback he kept, but four players on bye was too many holes against a lineup that hot. Jono’s three-game streak is over, the series is tied at 12-12-1, and Wade stays in first.
The ChoSimba Ones were favored by 9 and led by 21 after Thursday night and the early Sunday-morning game, and then lost by 38, which takes real commitment. I am dead inside scored 81 points in the Sunday early games alone, led by Omar Cooper Jr., a waiver claim this week who turned a 6.6 projection into 20.0, and Kirk Cousins, Zach’s starter a week ago, closed it out with 22.4. Meanwhile Dillon finished 30.8 under projection, got 15.2 combined from DK Metcalf and Woody Marks in their first week after the trade, and left 51.0 on the bench, the most in the league, including 24.0 from Caleb Williams while Jared Goff started. That’s Trevor over Dillon in back-to-back weeks, the series is down to 10-7, Trevor is on a two-game heater, and Dillon’s playoff odds are 2%, which is less a number than a eulogy.
Tuten Your Mother, Respectfully played without Tuten, who was on bye, and didn’t miss him, because the trade machine finally paid out. Zach sent DK Metcalf to Dillon for Luther Burden III and Alvin Kamara, Burden opened the week with 21.7 on Thursday night, and Joe Burrow came back from his bye with 32.8, so Zach never trailed and his playoff odds jumped 13 points to 92%. Cornstar started Tyler Allgeier, the running back she got from Zach for Metcalf, against Zach himself, and Allgeier answered with 6.4, which is the kind of revenge plot that ends with the villain getting a parking ticket. In fairness to the rookie, Metcalf only scored 6.6 for Dillon, so Lexi lost that trade by two-tenths of a point, which is more than Dillon can say about his. Javonte Williams scored 21.5 on Monday night after the game was long gone, the skid is now four, and with Jono also losing by 45, it was a quiet 0-2 Sunday in that house.
The Lock never sweated. Gibbed for your pleasure got 23.8 from Tee Higgins in his first game since the trade and 17.8 from Puka Nacua, and Jack won the biggest blowout of the week by 49.6 without much help from Jahmyr Gibbs (14.8 on a 23.5 projection). Remember the Nice Guys, ChatGPT actually led for a few hours on Sunday morning thanks to Chris Olave, and then Justin Jefferson scored 6.4 and the whole team finished 38.8 under projection. Kevin is now 3-18 all-time against Jack, the losing streak is at three, and his playoff odds dropped 14 points to 17%. As for Jack, he changed the name back last week and immediately started winning again, so it turns out the team just runs better on the original firmware.
Trick or Trick It’s Mike Vick never trailed, and that’s the nicest thing I can say about it. Drake Maye opened with 29.4 on Thursday night and Bucky Irving went for 23.5, which covered for Derrick Henry scoring 5.4, his second dud in a row, and for Nate starting Christian Kirk for a zero after I told him in the preview that Kirk was on injured reserve. Swift kick in the Dak got exactly what the name promised, with D’Andre Swift scoring 17.0 on Thursday and Dak Prescott scoring 26.2 on Monday night, but everything in between fell through the floor, as Nico Collins (1.6) and Jalen Coker (1.4) combined for three points. Shawnee did listen and sat the banged-up David Montgomery, which I appreciate, but the playoff odds still fell 17 points to 13%, and next week Collins, Montgomery and two others are on bye.
Last week 2x Runner Up beat the No. 1 team as a 30-point underdog, and I asked Luke to prove it wasn’t a typo. It was a typo. One Big Beautiful Dillbot led after every window, Quinshon Judkins came back with 22.9 on an 11.9 projection, and Grant won by 42.9 even with Brock Purdy managing 12.9. Luke posted the week’s low score, 73.0, and his entire Monday night was the Eagles, whose defense finished at -6.0 as Dallas hung 38 on it in a 17-point loss, and Jaylin Noel, a waiver claim this week, contributed 0.7. C.J. Stroud’s 18.4 deserved better company, and Luke’s Sacko odds are now 51%. Grant’s streak is up to three, he leads the series 3-2, and his playoff odds rose 10 points to 91%, and that is all I will be saying about Grant, professionally.
The receipts: I went 3-for-6. The Lock cashed with the biggest blowout of the week, and Grant and Nate both came through. The Game of the Week was a pure self-own, because I diagnosed Wade’s empty slot, he fixed it, and Pollard made me pay for it. The Upset Alert lost by 30, the Dillon pick lost by 38, and the Bold Prediction went half-right: Rodgers did outscore Bryce Young, 14.0 to 6.3, and Jono lost by 45 anyway. Grant’s heater held, Jono’s ended at three, and the skids for Kevin and Lexi reached three and four. On to the hardware: Wade takes Team of the Week for 156.2 and a 35-point running back he almost didn’t start, Dillon gets Biggest Choke for turning a 21-point lead as the favorite into a 38-point loss, Luke takes Sacko for the low score and a negative defense on Monday night, Nate is the Lucky Bastard for winning by 23 with a zero from an injured receiver and 5.4 from Henry, and Lexi gets Bold Strategy for starting the player she traded for against the guy she traded with.
🏆 Awards
- Team of the Week — God’s Commissioner — 156.2, 43.6 over projection, and Tony Pollard’s 35.0 out of a lineup slot that was empty when the preview went out.
- Biggest Choke — The ChoSimba Ones — favored by 9, up 21 early Sunday, lost by 38 to the same team for the second straight week.
- Sacko of the Week — 2x Runner Up — 73.0, the week’s low score, with the Eagles D/ST at -6.0 in a 17-point Eagles loss.
- Lucky Bastard — Trick or Trick It’s Mike Vick — started a receiver on injured reserve, got 5.4 from Derrick Henry, and still won wire to wire because Nico Collins and Jalen Coker combined for three points.
- Bold Strategy — Cornstar — started Tyler Allgeier against the man who traded him to her, and got 6.4 for the trouble.
The Preview
Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington are all off this week, which takes Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Jayden Daniels, James Cook III and Bhayshul Tuten out of the league at once. And the trade market was open all week: Zach made two deals, Jono went dumpster diving for a quarterback, and the commish forgot to finish his lineup. Last week the underdogs ate. Let’s see who’s hungry this time.
The Game of the Week is first place against the longest active win streak in the league, and I need to start with a problem. God’s Commissioner has nine starters and ten lineup spots, which means one empty slot, while Tony Pollard sits on the bench projected for nearly 13. Fill it and the commish is the projected favorite; leave it and the model sides with Return of the IDP, and so do I, because Jono’s riding three straight wins even with four players on bye, the most of anyone, including Josh Allen. Jono’s answer at quarterback is Aaron Rodgers, a waiver claim this week, and the last manager to roster Rodgers was Wade, who picked him up in Week 5 and let him go. Rodgers gets the first word in Sunday morning’s international game, Wade’s kicker Chris Boswell plays in the same one, and it ends Sunday night with Kenneth Walker III and Jaxon Smith-Njigba for Wade against Xavier Worthy and Jason Myers for Jono, all in the same game. Jono leads the series 12-11-1, so this one either gets tied up or pulls away, and I’m not betting on a man starting nine players. Jono.
Gibbed for your pleasure spent one week as Unplug Dillbot, lost to the last-place team, and quietly changed the name back. Apology accepted. Jack’s back on top of the projections anyway, with Jahmyr Gibbs back from his bye, Puka Nacua, and Tee Higgins finally playing a game for the team that traded for him last week, while Kyler Murray covers for Trevor Lawrence’s bye. Remember the Nice Guys, ChatGPT gets Justin Jefferson and Chase Brown back and opens his week with the Patriots D/ST on Thursday night and closes it Sunday night with Travis Kelce and Harrison Butker, a kicker Kevin picked up this week because Cameron Dicker’s on bye. Kevin has lost two straight and is 3-17 all-time against Jack, which isn’t a rivalry, it’s a standing appointment. Jack.
2x Runner Up just beat the No. 1 team as a 30-point underdog, and now Luke has to prove that wasn’t a typo. Good news first: DJ Moore is finally out of Luke’s lineup, and all it took was Buffalo’s bye. C.J. Stroud is back under center, and Luke’s entire Monday night is one Eagles game, with Saquon Barkley, banged-up again, DeVonta Smith and the Eagles D/ST all in Dallas at Philadelphia, so Luke will be watching that one like it owes him money. One Big Beautiful Dillbot is second in the projections and on a two-game win streak, with Brock Purdy, Brock Bowers, Malik Nabers and a returning Quinshon Judkins, and Jaylen Warren gets things going in the international game. I’ve been asked to keep my Grant coverage professional, so here it is, professionally: Bijan Robinson owes this team about 15 points from last week. The series is tied 2-2, so somebody finally takes the lead. Grant.
I am dead inside won last week on a Jayden Daniels Monday night, and this week Daniels is on bye, so Trevor’s quarterback is Kirk Cousins, who was starting for Zach last week. Rome Odunze opens Trevor’s week Thursday night in Chicago, in the same game as Dillon’s A.J. Brown and Colston Loveland, so that first box score will tell you a lot. The ChoSimba Ones get Jared Goff back and were busy this week, sending Alvin Kamara and Luther Burden III, both of whom originally came from Jack, to Zach for DK Metcalf and Woody Marks, and both new arrivals start right away, with Metcalf playing in Sunday morning’s international game. Dillon’s favored and leads the series 10-6, and a 2-3-1 team with single-digit playoff odds doesn’t get to lose this one. Dillon.
Trick or Trick It’s Mike Vick is the favorite by a mile on paper, and Nate needs it after last week’s low score. Drake Maye opens Nate’s week Thursday night, and Nate’s Monday night is CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aubrey in Dallas at Philadelphia. One thing to check before kickoff, Nate: Christian Kirk, a free-agent pickup this week, is in your lineup and still on injured reserve. Swift kick in the Dak is last in projected strength, with Cook, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Austin Ekeler all on bye, and Shawnee’s answer was to claim David Montgomery and start him, even though he’s banged-up and projected for zero. Fix that one before Sunday, Shawnee. The team name does get its bookends, with D’Andre Swift on Thursday night and Dak Prescott and George Pickens on Monday night, the same game as Nate’s Cowboys, so this could come down to which side of the Dallas offense shows up. Shawnee leads the series 12-5, and the reigning sacko has owned this matchup for years, but brace yourself for next week, Shawnee, because five more of your players are on bye. Nate.
The rookie and the trade machine meet for the first time, and they’ve already done business. Tuten Your Mother, Respectfully traded Tyler Allgeier to Cornstar for DK Metcalf this week, then flipped Metcalf to Dillon a few days later, which means Lexi’s receiver passed through Zach like a layover. That’s three trades in two weeks for Zach, who gets Joe Burrow and Amon-Ra St. Brown back from their byes but loses Tuten, the man on the team name. Lexi’s on a three-game skid, but Ja’Marr Chase has a game again, Jordan Love has been steady since the waiver wire delivered him, and Javonte Williams closes out her week on Monday night. Allgeier, for what it’s worth, is on Lexi’s bench. The projection likes Zach by a little, and I like the rookie getting the last word on the guy who flipped her receiver. Lexi.
So here’s the card. Wade vs Jono is the Game of the Week: first place against a three-game heater, a series one game from even, and Wade’s former quarterback starting against him, unless the commish fills that empty slot and flips the whole thing. The Lock is Jack, because 17-3 against Kevin with the top projection on the board is as safe as this slate gets. The Upset Alert is Lexi, because a rookie on a three-game skid facing the guy who just traded with her is about as motivated as it gets. And the Bold Prediction: Aaron Rodgers outscores Bryce Young, and Jono beats Wade with Wade’s own castoff.
🔮 Picks
- Game of the Week — God’s Commissioner vs Return of the IDP — first place against a three-game heater, a 12-11-1 series, and one empty lineup slot that could decide it.
- Lock of the Week — Gibbed for your pleasure — 17-3 all-time against Kevin, the top projection on the board, and Gibbs back from his bye.
- Upset Alert — Cornstar — the model leans Zach; I lean the rookie playing the guy who flipped her receiver within the week.
- Bold Prediction — Aaron Rodgers outscores Bryce Young, and Jono beats Wade with the quarterback Wade let go.
Power Rankings
Claude's subjective take on how the teams stack up heading into the week — weighing roster composition, recent matchups and scoring trends, key injuries, and any trades or pickups. Set at the start of the week, alongside the preview; the arrow shows the move from last week.
-
1
▲1
Up one to the top on a 143-point average over three weeks; the throne apparently comes with nine starters.
-
2
▼1
Down one after losing to the last-place team, and the old name is back, so let's never speak of it.
-
3
▲1
Up one on a 135 average over the last three, which is impressive for a team whose Bijan forgot to show up.
-
4
▲1
Up one on three straight wins, now without Josh Allen and three others, and starting Wade's old quarterback against Wade.
-
5
▼2
Down two after a 67 undid a 179; the season average says contender, the last box score disagrees.
-
6
—
Holds at six while trading like it's a hobby: three deals in two weeks and the namesake on bye.
-
7
▲2
Up two despite a loss, because Tre Tucker's 24 kept the points honest; Jefferson and Chase Brown are finally back.
-
8
▼1
Down one on a 106 average over three, and this week's backfield is a bye list plus a zero-projection Montgomery.
-
9
▼1
Down one after a 1.1-point heartbreaker made it three straight losses; at least Chase has a game this week.
-
10
—
Holds at ten, because averaging 106 doesn't climb anywhere; Metcalf and Woody Marks arrive by trade to try.
-
11
—
Still eleventh despite the Monday comeback, and the reward for Jayden Daniels saving the week is Jayden Daniels on bye.
-
12
—
Still twelfth, because one 125 doesn't erase five weeks of 74, but the No. 1 team knows Luke's name now.