Halfway Point · 2026
The season at the break: standings, the playoff picture and every team's first half, frozen as of the end of Week 7.
Half a season in, the commissioner has renamed his team after God and played like it, with the best record, the most points and a 63-14 all-play record that nobody else is close to. The reigning champ broke the all-time single-week record and is tied with Him at 5-2, Grant went from 0-2 to a three-game winning streak, and the rookie has outscored five teams and has a four-game skid to show for it. And Luke, two years removed from a title, is a coin flip for the Sacko. Here’s where everybody stands at the break, and where they’re headed.
Standings at the Halfway Point
| Rank | Team | Record | Pct | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5-2 | .714 | 981.4 | 883.5 | |
| 2 | 5-2 | .714 | 954.3 | 776.5 | |
| 3 | 5-2 | .714 | 858.2 | 759.2 | |
| 4 | 4-3 | .571 | 864.2 | 687.8 | |
| 5 | 4-3 | .571 | 835.5 | 880.2 | |
| 6 | 4-3 | .571 | 835.4 | 772.4 | |
| 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 757.8 | 782.3 | |
| 8 | 3-4 | .429 | 748.8 | 792.6 | |
| 9 | 2-4-1 | .357 | 775.4 | 862.2 | |
| 10 | 2-4-1 | .357 | 723.2 | 817.5 | |
| 11 | 2-5 | .286 | 776.0 | 818.7 | |
| 12 | 2-5 | .286 | 569.5 | 846.8 |
Season Outlook
At the top, it’s a two-team league. Wade and Jack are both 5-2, both locks for the playoffs, and both odds-on for a bye, and they’ve drawn the two easiest second-half schedules in the league, so the real race between them is for the top seed and the Shiva, where they’re the favorites at 37% and 29%. They don’t meet again in the regular season, which means the first rematch could be in the playoffs, and I want that game. Right behind them, Zach and Grant are both above 90% and playing for seeding more than survival. The last two spots are the real fight: Jono at 79% and Nate at 76%, who meet in Week 10 in the biggest key matchup on the calendar: two teams with the same record, chasing the same spot. With the sixth seed going to the top scorer outside the top five, points matter as much as wins down the stretch, and the final week has two games that could decide the bracket: Jack against Zach, and Grant against Nate.
The bubble got a lot thinner in Week 7. Lexi, Kevin, Shawnee and Trevor are all between 12% and 18%, so one of them needs to catch Jono or Nate, and my pick is Lexi, who has the seventh-most points in the league and a soft stretch in the middle of her schedule. Dillon is at 2% and Luke is below 1%, which turns the second half into a Sacko race, with Luke a 51% favorite to take it and Dillon next at 15%. They play each other in Week 10, the same week Luke has seven players on bye, so Luke had better win the week before.
Playoff Odds at the Halfway Point
From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, as of the end of Week 7, using the league's real seeding, wildcard and bracket rules. Rating is the model's estimate of a team's true points per week; early in the season it leans on the league average, since a few weeks of scores are mostly noise. Arrows mark teams whose playoff odds rose or fell since the week before. Frozen as it stood at the time; the season page has the live forecast.
| Team | Rec | PF | Rating | Proj W | Sacko | Playoffs | Bye | Top 3 | Shiva |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | 981.4 | 133.1 | 10.5 | <1% | >99% | 85% | 82% | 37% | |
| 5-2 | 954.3 | 130.3 | 10.3 | <1% | >99% | 77% | 76% | 29% | |
| 5-2 | 858.2 | 120.5 | 8.8 | <1% | ▲92% | 20% | 38% | 9% | |
| 4-3 | 864.2 | 121.1 | 8.0 | <1% | ▲91% | 8% | 36% | 9% | |
| 4-3 | 835.5 | 118.2 | 7.8 | 1% | ▲79% | 5% | 26% | 6% | |
| 4-3 | 835.4 | 118.2 | 7.5 | 1% | ▲76% | 4% | 25% | 6% | |
| 2-5 | 776.0 | 112.1 | 5.4 | 7% | ▼18% | <1% | 4% | 1% | |
| 2-4-1 | 775.4 | 112.0 | 5.1 | 7% | ▼17% | <1% | 4% | 1% | |
| 3-4 | 757.8 | 110.2 | 5.9 | 8% | ▼13% | <1% | 4% | 1% | |
| 3-4 | 748.8 | 109.3 | 5.8 | 9% | ▲12% | <1% | 3% | <1% | |
| 2-4-1 | 723.2 | 106.7 | 4.5 | 15% | ▼2% | <1% | 1% | <1% | |
| 2-5 | 569.5 | 91.0 | 3.3 | 51% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Team by Team
-
1God's Commissioner Wade5-2 · 981.4 PF · 883.5 PAPlayoffs >99% Shiva 37% All-play 63-14 SOS 12th (105.1 ppg)
Wade started the year as The People’s Commissioner, promoted himself to God’s Commissioner in Week 5, and has played like it: the most points in the league and a 63-14 all-play, the best of anyone by a mile. Both of his losses came while scoring 144 or more, and nobody has faced more points, so the 5-2 record is, if anything, underselling a team that closed the half with the week’s top score, 156.2, behind a 35-point game from Tony Pollard. The draft built it, with his first two picks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III, combining for over 300 points, and Bryce Young off the waiver wire has added 66 more, though Young’s 6.3 in Week 7 says the quarterback question isn’t fully settled. Now he gets the easiest remaining schedule in the league, with just two games against the current top six and not one opponent who shares his record. The Week 9 rematch with Nate, who hung 179.1 on him, and Week 10 against Grant are the real tests. And Luke twice, in Weeks 8 and 12, is as soft as it gets, against the lowest-scoring team in the league at 81.4 a week. The one bye problem on the calendar is Week 11 against Shawnee, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Blake Corum among four players off. At 85% for the bye, I’ve got the commish taking the top seed, and if Luke steals one of those two games, it’s going to be a very long sermon.
-
25-2 · 954.3 PF · 776.5 PAPlayoffs >99% Shiva 29% All-play 53-23-1 SOS 11th (106.5 ppg)
The reigning champ set the all-time single-week record with 193.7 in Week 5, has the second-most points in the league, and is tied with Wade at 5-2, so the title defense is right on schedule. A 53-23-1 all-play says the record is exactly what this team is: very good, not unbeatable. Jahmyr Gibbs has delivered as the first-round pick, and a seventh-round Trevor Lawrence has scored 127.8, but this roster is built more on hustle than draft day: nobody works the waiver wire harder, with 39 pickups, led by his kicker, Will Reichard. The Week 6 trade for Tee Higgins and George Kittle looked like a whiff while Higgins sat on bye, and then Higgins scored 23.8 in his first game, so the Higgins-Kittle trade has given him 50 points to Garrett Wilson’s 10 for Zach. His worst bye week is behind him, the Week 6 one when Luke beat him, and the second-easiest road in the league is ahead: Dillon twice in Weeks 8 and 9, Shawnee, and a Week 11 rematch with Luke, this time with Jahmyr Gibbs in the lineup. Week 12 is Jono, whom he buried by 63 on opening day. The one that should worry him is the finale, Zach in Week 14, the only team left on his schedule with his 5-2 record, with the bye possibly on the line and both ends of that trade on the field. I’ve got Jack and Wade in a dead heat for the top seed, and the final week could be what decides it.
-
3
5-2 · 858.2 PF · 759.2 PAPlayoffs 92% Shiva 9% All-play 49-28 SOS 4th (118.1 ppg)Zach beat Wade in a Week 1 shootout and has looked like one of the best teams in the league ever since, and a 5-2 record with a 49-28 all-play backs that up. His best draft pick was a fifth-rounder, Joe Burrow, with 144.6 points, but this team is defined by its trades: he’s the league’s most active trader, with five deals, and the scorecard is finally tilting his way: Ashton Jeanty has given him 105 points as a starter, and Luther Burden III opened his Zach career with 21.7 in Week 7. Not all of them landed, though. Jared Goff has scored 94.4 for Dillon to Josh Downs’ 26.2 for Zach, and Higgins and Kittle are cashing checks for Jack now. At 92% he’s nearly in, so the second half is about the bye, and the road is the fourth-toughest in the league, with four games against the current top six. Weeks 8 and 9 are the stretch to watch: Grant, with Isaiah Likely and Cam Skattebo on bye, and then a rematch with Jono, who beat him by 31 in Week 2. Kevin twice, in Weeks 10 and 12, looks like a breather, though Kevin’s all-play says otherwise. Then it closes with the hardest two weeks of his year: Nate in Week 13, with Jeanty, Downs, Garrett Wilson and his defense all on bye, and Jack in Week 14, who has his record and averages 136.3 points a week, the second-most in the league. Split those two and I like his chances of crashing the bye party.
-
44-3 · 864.2 PF · 687.8 PAPlayoffs 91% Shiva 9% All-play 45-31-1 SOS 9th (115.4 ppg)
Grant started 0-2 and has gone 4-1 since, on a three-game winning streak with the third-most points in the league. The 4-3 record still undersells him, because he’s 0-2 in close games, including a 0.2-point loss to Kevin, and a 45-31-1 all-play says he should be a game better, even with the friendliest luck in the league on the other side of the field: nobody has faced fewer points. He’s barely touched the waiver wire, with six pickups all year, because he hasn’t needed to: the best draft in the league accounts for 94% of his points, and the steal of it is Brock Purdy, a 10th-round pick who has scored 160.3. At 91% for the playoffs with the fourth-easiest road left, the question is seeding. Week 8 against Zach comes with Brock Purdy and Malik Nabers on bye, Week 9 is the revenge game against Shawnee, who beat him by 4.7 in the opener, and Week 10 is Wade, the league’s top scorer at 140.2 a week. Week 11 against Lexi is the strangest game left on anybody’s schedule, because both teams have five players on bye, Bijan Robinson among Grant’s, so whoever has the deeper waiver wire wins. Then comes the finale against Nate, who has the same 4-3 record and whom Grant just beat by 39, possibly with Nate’s playoff spot on the line. Book him for the playoffs.
-
5
Return of the IDP Jono4-3 · 835.5 PF · 880.2 PAPlayoffs 79% Shiva 6% All-play 43-34 SOS 8th (115.7 ppg)Jono spent the first half daring everyone to decide whether he’s any good: three straight wins in the middle, bookended by a 63-point loss to Jack on opening day and a 45-point loss to Wade in Week 7. So here’s where it stands: 4-3 with the fifth-most points and a 43-34 all-play, and that’s despite facing the second-most points in the league, 880.2, which is pure bad luck. He’s been outscored by his opponents over the half and is still above .500. Josh Allen, his second-round pick, has scored 169.2, the most of any drafted player in the league, and with Christian McCaffrey he’s carrying a roster that gets 95% of its points from the draft. His best pickups are a defense and Aaron Rodgers, Wade’s castoff, who at least outscored Wade’s quarterback in the head-to-head. The worst bye week is already behind him, with Allen and three others off in that Week 7 loss, and the road ahead is the fifth-easiest in the league. The stretch that decides his season is Weeks 9 and 10: Zach, a game ahead of him at 5-2, whom he beat by 31 in Week 2, though Rodgers and his defense are on bye, and then Nate, with the same 4-3 record and the last playoff spots on the line. Week 11 is a sneaky trap, Kevin, whose all-play says he’s better than his 2-4-1 record, and Week 12 is the rematch with Jack. Then, in Week 13, the marital rematch with Lexi, after he won the first one by 1.1 points, and I hope the house is ready. At 79% he’s in decent shape, but that Week 10 game against Nate is the one I’d circle in red.
-
6
4-3 · 835.4 PF · 772.4 PAPlayoffs 76% Shiva 6% All-play 38-39 SOS 3rd (118.3 ppg)No team in this league is harder to read. Nate scored 179.1 to beat the commish in Week 5, posted the week’s low score, 67.1, the very next week, and a 38-39 all-play says a 4-3 record is about as good as this team has actually been. He’s found ways to win anyway, including Week 7, when he never trailed against Shawnee despite starting Christian Kirk on injured reserve and getting 5.4 from Derrick Henry, his second dud in a row. The second half won’t let him coast: the third-toughest road in the league, four games against the current top six, and two key matchups against teams with his exact record. Week 9 is the rematch with Wade, the team he hung 179.1 on, and Week 10 is Jono, the race game for the last spots, with Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin Jr. among four players on bye. Week 11 against Dillon, the second-lowest scorer in the league, is his breather, and then comes Zach. The finale is Grant, who has the same 4-3 record and the third-most points in the league and just beat him by 39, and Nate will be playing it without CeeDee Lamb or Brandon Aubrey, who are both on bye. At 76% the odds like Nate a lot more than his all-play does, and honestly, I have no idea which Nate shows up.
-
7Swift kick in the Dak Shawnee3-4 · 757.8 PF · 782.3 PAPlayoffs 13% Shiva 1% All-play 30-47 SOS 6th (116.9 ppg)
The reigning sacko got back to .500 and then slipped to 3-4, and a 30-47 all-play says the record has been flattering her. Shawnee opened 2-0 and has won both of her close games, and the team name has earned its keep: Dak Prescott, a sixth-round pick, leads the roster with 140.7 points. The draft-day trade for Nico Collins has paid off too, with 64.1 points as a starter, even if his 1.6 in Week 7 wasn’t part of the payoff. But the scoring has fallen off since that hot start, from 134.7 in Week 2 to 81.3 in Week 7, and her playoff odds dropped 17 points to 13%. The schedule comes in one big wave. Week 8 against Lexi is a trap, with Collins and David Montgomery among four players on bye, and then it’s Grant, Jack and Wade in Weeks 9 through 11, the gauntlet that decides her season. Survive that and it gets friendly: Nate in Week 12, a rematch she’ll want back after Week 7, and then Luke and Trevor, two of the three lowest-scoring teams in the league. Even the finale comes with a catch, because the Dallas bye takes away Dak Prescott and George Pickens, so the team name sits out the most important week of the year. She needs to steal one from the big three, and a team that just got out of the Sacko has every reason not to go back.
-
8
I am dead inside Trevor3-4 · 748.8 PF · 792.6 PAPlayoffs 12% Shiva <1% All-play 29-48 SOS 5th (117.0 ppg)Trevor is on a two-game winning streak, both over Dillon, and has climbed to eighth, which for a team called I am dead inside counts as a resurrection. The numbers are less excited: a 29-48 all-play and the 10th-most points say the 3-4 record is a little better than the team. The low point was Week 3, when De’Von Achane tore his ACL, and with his draft ranking 11th in the league in points, Trevor has had to live on the wire, where it’s paying off: Ollie Gordon II and Kirk Cousins have each given him nearly 50 points as a starter, and Omar Cooper Jr., a waiver claim before Week 7, scored 20 in the win. The Week 1 trade has gone Zach’s way, though, Ashton Jeanty’s 105 to Drake London’s 89 as starters, and that grudge match is Week 11. The road is the fifth-toughest in the league, with two key matchups against teams in the same spot he’s in: Kevin in Week 9, a team he’s already beaten once, and Shawnee in the finale, with the same 3-4 record. In between come Lexi twice, in Weeks 10 and 12, the two games most likely to decide whether he’s chasing a playoff spot or running from the Sacko, and Week 13 against Jack, with Jonathan Taylor, Kirk Cousins and Mark Andrews all on bye. At 12% for the playoffs and 9% for the Sacko, he’s alive in both directions, which is more than the team name promised.
-
9
2-4-1 · 775.4 PF · 862.2 PAPlayoffs 17% Shiva 1% All-play 39-37-1 SOS 7th (116.1 ppg)Kevin is better than his record, and the numbers prove it: 2-4-1 with a 39-37-1 all-play, the only winning all-play of any team below .500, and he’s faced the third-most points in the league, the kind of bad luck no lineup can fix. He’s lived in coin-flip games, with a tie against Dillon and a 0.2-point win over Grant, but the last three weeks have all been losses, capped by a 49.6-point beating from Jack. The draft hasn’t helped at the top: Chase Brown and Justin Jefferson, his first two picks, have about 60 points apiece, while his best draft value is a 14th-round Matthew Stafford with 102. Tre Tucker off the waiver wire has been the surprise of the roster. The catch is the schedule: five of his seven games are against the current top six, and that’s how a team with a winning all-play ends up at 17%. Week 9 against Trevor comes first, a must-win game against a team just half a game ahead of him, and a revenge game for Week 3. Then Zach twice, in Weeks 10 and 12, is his whole case: a 5-2 team averaging 122.6 a week, and he needs at least one. Week 11 against Jono comes with Matthew Stafford and Josh Jacobs among four players on bye. Week 13 against Wade, the league’s top scorer, has to be survived before he gets to the softest landing on the schedule, Luke in the finale. The good news is that his heavy bye weeks are mostly behind him; the bad news is that everything else is still in front of him.
-
10The ChoSimba Ones Dillon2-4-1 · 723.2 PF · 817.5 PAPlayoffs 2% Shiva <1% All-play 24-52-1 SOS 2nd (119.9 ppg)
Dillon’s season in one sentence: a tie in Week 1, a win in Week 5 with a negative-six defense, and a 2-4-1 record that’s still better than a 24-52-1 all-play says it should be. The low point came in Week 7, when he led Trevor by 21 as the favorite and lost by 38, his second straight loss to Trevor. The trades were a necessity, because his draft ranks last in the league in points: Omarion Hampton, the first-round pick, scored 42.7 before he was traded, and A.J. Brown, the second, has 14.6. The trade log is long and mostly a wash: the Jared Goff deal has paid off with 94.4 points as a starter, but Nico Collins went to Shawnee on draft day, and Dillon took four players from Jack only to flip two of them to Zach two weeks later. The road is the second-toughest in the league, with six of seven games against the current top six. Jack twice, back-to-back in Weeks 8 and 9, is where the playoff hopes probably end, and Grant twice, in Weeks 12 and 13, is the spoiler shot, though Breece Hall and his kicker are on bye for the second one. His best upset chance is Week 11 against Nate, a playoff team whose 38-39 all-play says he’s beatable. At 2% for the playoffs and 15% for the Sacko, the second half is about staying out of the basement, and Week 10 against Luke is the one game he can’t lose, especially since Luke will be playing it without most of the Eagles.
-
11Cornstar Lexi2-5 · 776.0 PF · 818.7 PAPlayoffs 18% Shiva 1% All-play 35-42 SOS 10th (112.4 ppg)
The rookie has had a rough introduction. Lexi beat Luke by 60 to get to 2-1 and then lost four straight, including a 132.5 that ran into Jack’s record-breaking 193.7 and a 1.1-point loss to Jono, but she has the seventh-most points in the league, and a 35-42 all-play, plus the fifth-most points faced, says she should have at least one more win. Injuries have done the most damage, with Lamar Jackson, Rashee Rice, Tyler Warren and Jeremiyah Love all missing time, and the waiver wire has been her best friend: Jordan Love, the quarterback Wade let go, has given her 67.2 points as a starter. The good news is the road, the third-easiest in the league, and the middle of it is soft. Week 8 is Shawnee, with four of Shawnee’s players on bye, then Luke in Week 9, a team she beat by 60, and Trevor twice, in Weeks 10 and 12, which makes four winnable games in five weeks, with Grant in Week 11 the one real test. The byes, though, all land late: five players off in Week 11, including Jordan Love, four in Week 13 against Jono, Lamar Jackson among them, and three more in the Week 14 finale against Wade. So the rookie has to bank those wins early, because the last four weeks are a fight with a short bench. At 18% she has the best playoff odds of anyone in the bottom half, and nobody near the cut line should want to see her coming.
-
122x Runner Up Luke2-5 · 569.5 PF · 846.8 PAPlayoffs <1% Shiva <1% All-play 12-65 SOS 1st (121.4 ppg)
It’s been a long half for the Eagles fan. Luke went all in on Philadelphia, and the Eagles have mostly left him stranded, starting with Saquon Barkley, his first-round pick, who has scored 35.1 points as a starter all season, which is how he’s averaging 81.4 points a week, by far the fewest in the league, with a 12-65 all-play to match. The one bright spot was Week 6, when he beat Jack as a 30-point underdog, and then the Eagles defense finished at negative six in a 42.9-point loss to Grant the very next week. The bad news is that he has the toughest remaining schedule in the league. It starts with Wade, the league’s top scorer, in Week 8, and he gets the commish again in Week 12. Week 11 is the rematch with Jack, and Jack will remember. The games that actually decide his season are the three against the Sacko crowd: Lexi in Week 9, a revenge game for the 60-point loss; Kevin in the finale; and Dillon in Week 10, which is also the Eagles’ bye week. Luke has seven players off that week, Barkley, Smith and the Eagles defense among them, the heaviest bye week anybody has all year, and he gets it in the biggest game of his season. At 51% for the Sacko, the all-in-on-Philly plan is about to send him its bill.