Week 2 · 2026

ESPN Projections

Projected line	Projection	Call
Gibbed for your pleasure −13.7 overOne Big Beautiful Dill	126.7 – 113.0	Called it
Josh Jacobs Alibi −0.8 overCornstar	121.3 – 120.5	Called it
Trick or Trick It’s Mike Vick −11.8 over2x Runner Up	125.1 – 113.3	Called it
I am dead inside −20.1 overThe People's Commissioner	121.8 – 101.7	Upset
Swift kick in the Dak −2.0 overThe ChoSimba Ones	114.9 – 112.9	Called it
Return of the IDP −2.9 overTuten Your Mom	117.4 – 114.5	Called it

Captured Sep 17, 2026 · 1:57 PM PDT, before kickoff

The Recap

Week 2 came for the overreactions and cashed most of them, and it did it in a week where the injuries finally started to rear their nasty heads. I told you to price the drama; the drama priced right back.

I should start where I got my face kicked in, because I put my Upset Alert on Luke on the strength of a 14-11 all-time edge over Nate, history over the model, and Nate answered by hanging 153.6 on Luke’s 77.4. That was less a game than a public execution, with Davante Adams going for 35 while Luke’s Saquon Barkley limped to a 2 on a 16 projection like the whole roster had caught the same flu. I took the history and Nate took the week by seventy-six, so I’ll tip my cap and keep my mouth shut for now.

Jono, meanwhile, spent the afternoon quietly building a case against me, dropping 137.9 behind a filthy 43.7 from Josh Allen and handling Zach without ever breaking a sweat. Zach is the part that stings, because he strolled in a supposed powerhouse — a 160-burger in Week 1 and the No. 2 seat in my rankings — and then no-showed a 106.5 with Ashton Jeanty stumbling to an 8. I called this one a lean I didn’t love, and for the second week running Jono’s made me look too hard on him, so I’m watching.

At the top of the board the champ survived, though only barely. Jack posted a 92, his worst number of the young season, with Trevor Lawrence faceplanting for a 6, and he managed it while Puka Nacua sat on his bench, out — and still got past Grant, because of course he did. That’s four straight over Grant now, and it’s stopped being a matchup and started being a restraining order. Somebody should probably check on Grant, though — is he even home? — because he left 67 points on his own bench and watched Malik Nabers scrape a single point before vanishing entirely, and hurt stars over a bonfire bench are how a man ends up 0-2. The Lock cashed, ugly as it was.

The Bold Prediction, on the other hand, was the cleanest call I made all week. I told you Wade would run out a skeleton lineup with half a training room on the shelf and still beat his number to bury Trevor, and that’s exactly what he did, 125.8 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba going nuclear for 38. The banged-up commissioner sits at 1-1 and looking fine, while Trevor, the projection’s Week 1 sweetheart, keeps living all the way up to “I am dead inside.”

The Game of the Week was supposed to be the Nico Collins revenge tour, the whole pitch being Shawnee shipping picks to aim him back at his old team, and then Nico sat the thing out inactive and it didn’t matter even a little. Shawnee dropped 134.7 on Dillon’s 80.8 anyway, Dak Prescott going for 33, and the reigning Sacko is now 2-0 and strutting like she never saw the basement — revenge served hot without the weapon ever suiting up. Dillon’s Caleb Williams did the very Caleb thing, an 8 on a 21, and last week’s tie already looks like the good old days. Do better.

And finally, the rookie caught a lesson. I leaned Lexi, but Kevin didn’t much care about my feelings and hung 106.8 behind a vintage Kelce, reminding the first-timer that career owners — even the .401 ones — still know where the sticks are. Ja’Marr Chase’s 23 wasn’t nearly enough, so welcome to Week 2, kid, where 1-1 is the minimum and nobody’s impressed yet.

Injuries were the uninvited theme all afternoon — Puka on Jack’s bench, Nico scratched from his own revenge game, Nabers ghosting Grant, and Saquon hobbling around for Luke. The managers who survived them get a nod (ahem, commish), and the ones who didn’t get an L and my sympathy, which is worth exactly nothing. See you next week.

🏆 Awards

• Team of the Week — Nate, 153.6, the top number on the board.
• Game Ball — Josh Allen (Jono), 43.7 — the loudest argument on the board.
• Escape Artist — Jack, a 92 with Puka in a sling, still 4-0 over Grant. The champ finds a way.
• Bonfire Award — Grant, 67.6 left on the bench in an 0-2 start. Woof.
• Crow, Eaten — me, for locking the Upset on Luke the week Nate decided to end careers.

The Preview

Week 1 handed us a tie, a 166-burger, and a rookie who barely escaped her first test — now the overreactions harden into Week 2. One week of data, twelve fragile egos, and my card. Let’s price it.

The champ isn’t cooling off. Gibbed for your pleasure rode Gibbs and Puka Nacua to the best score in the league last week, and the model makes Jack a comfortable favorite over One Big Beautiful Dill — which tracks, because Jack has never lost to Grant, 3-0 all-time. Grant’s got Brock Purdy and Bijan Robinson to build a case, but “0-for-his-career against this guy” is a nasty headwind, and he’s dragging a Week 1 loss in behind him. I’ll pick against the champ when I see a reason to; this isn’t the week.

Here’s the one I’ve got circled for pure comedy: the veteran who tied his Week 1 matchup against the rookie who won hers. Josh Jacobs Alibi vs Cornstar grades out a dead coin flip, and Lexi already served notice on her debut — Lamar Jackson and Ja’Marr Chase headline a lineup that outscored most of the room. Kevin counters with Justin Jefferson and a deep bench, but a career .401 owner letting a first-timer breathe is exactly how the wrong kind of legend gets born. First meeting, no history to hide behind — I lean the rookie.

The model’s got this one upside down. It likes Trick or Trick It’s Mike Vick over 2x Runner Up, but Luke owns the series 14-11 and Nate’s a career .383 who just posted an 87 in a spot he was built to win. The talent’s real — Derrick Henry and CeeDee Lamb will keep Nate breathing — but I am not fading a man who’s beaten Nate fourteen times on the word of a single projection. Give me Luke.

Don’t let the number lie to you on The People’s Commissioner vs I am dead inside. Wade shows up dead last on paper this week, but that’s eight names, not a lineup — he’s got injured bodies in the training room and slots he hasn’t filled yet. He’ll claw most of that projection gap back by Sunday; the open question is whether a banged-up roster can claw back all of it, and that may take some actual skill from him. Meanwhile, I am dead inside is the projection’s darling — rich, for the guy who put up the league’s lowest score in Week 1. Wade dropped 146 in a loss last week and Trevor mustered 85 in one of his own; if the Commissioner gets healthy and sets it right, he’s got the players to beat the number and the matchup to drag Trevor to 0-2.

Circle this for real: the Nico Collins reunion. Shawnee shipped picks to pry Collins off The ChoSimba Ones back in the offseason, and now she gets to point him — plus Dak Prescott, James Cook, and D’Andre Swift — straight at Dillon. It’s the closest rivalry on the board, Shawnee up 10-9 all-time, the reigning sacko is 1-0 and strutting, and Dillon’s coming off a 39-point Caleb Williams eruption that only bought him a tie. Two rosters that hang points in bunches; the model calls it a toss-up and I won’t argue.

Last one: Tuten Your Mom put up the second-most points in the league in Week 1, Ashton Jeanty cashing the trade the day it cleared, and Zach looks the part. The catch is Return of the IDP owns him 16-9 all-time — the kind of hex that laughs at one hot week — and Jono’s got Josh Allen and Christian McCaffrey to keep it ugly. The model even leans Jono’s way. Zach’s the better team today; Jono’s the worse matchup for him. I lean Jono, and I don’t love it.

So here’s the card. Dillon–Shawnee is the Game of the Week — a traded superstar aimed at his old team in the tightest rivalry we’ve got, that’s the whole pitch. I’m locking the champ; 3-0 over Grant and fresh off the league’s best number, so back Jack and don’t overthink it. My upset is Luke — the model’s in love with Nate, but a 14-11 series says it’s reading the wrong week. And the bold one, write it down: Wade, starting eight and half a training room, still beats his projection and sends Trevor home 0-2.

🔮 Picks

• Game of the Week — The ChoSimba Ones vs Swift kick in the Dak — the Nico Collins revenge game, in the league’s closest series (9-10).
• Lock of the Week — Gibbed for your pleasure — 3-0 all-time over Grant and coming off the week’s top score. Just trust it.
• Upset Alert — 2x Runner Up — the projection favors Nate, but Luke’s 14-11 in the series and I’ll take the history over one week’s model.
• Bold Prediction — Wade, down to eight healthy starters, still clears his projection and hands Trevor an 0-2 start.