Week 4 · 2026
ESPN Projections
| Projected line | Projection | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Cornstar −19.2 overThe ChoSimba Ones | 124.1 – 104.9 | Upset |
| Remember the Nice Guys, ChatGPT −0.4 overOne Big Beautiful Dillbot | 121.3 – 120.9 | Called it |
| Trick or Trick It’s Mike Vick −20.0 overI am dead inside | 129.9 – 109.9 | Called it |
| Return of the IDP −1.4 overSwift kick in the Dak | 112.9 – 111.5 | Called it |
| Gibbed for your pleasure −3.4 overGod's Commissioner | 130.9 – 127.5 | Upset |
| Tuten Your Mother, Respectfully −23.6 over2x Runner Up | 128.3 – 104.7 | Called it |
Captured Oct 1, 2026 · 3:13 PM PDT, before kickoff
The Recap
Week 4 had something for everybody: the champ finally bled, the league’s only winless team found a pulse, and two teams combined for 290 points just so one of them could lose by two-tenths of a point. Pull up a chair, because a few of you have some explaining to do.
Called it, and I’d like that framed. I said the commish would be the one to end Jack’s streak, and The People’s Commissioner did exactly that, hanging 144.8 on Gibbed for your pleasure behind Kenneth Walker III (30.4) and a 27.5 out of nowhere from Kyle Monangai. Even better, Wade rolled out Bryce Young again after a week of everyone (me) snickering about Jordan Love on the bench, and Young answered with 23.3, so the commish gets to be right about a quarterback for once. Jack’s three-game heater dies at 122.0, and while Alvin Kamara gave 20.3 straight off the free-agent pile, Parker Washington (1.5) and Dalton Kincaid (1.2) played like somebody told them kickoff was next Sunday.
The Lock was never in doubt. Tuten Your Mom won by 57.8, the biggest blowout of the week, with Joe Burrow (24.6) doing the heavy lifting while Josh Downs, the prize Zach pried loose in the Goff trade, chipped in a sad 3.1 as Goff threw for 21.4 on the other side of the deal. 2x Runner Up scored 65.4, the week’s low, and an injured Saquon Barkley turned a 13.3 projection into 1.5 points, a line that at this point should come with a receipt and a return policy. That’s three straight losses for Luke, who now sits a full hundred points behind the next-worst offense in the league and is running out of weeks to pretend this is a slump.
So much for the rookie teaching the old man a lesson. The ChoSimba Ones finally won a game, 121.0 to 104.6, and did it with the bargain bin: Emanuel Wilson, plucked off waivers last week, led the way with 25.5, Goff added his 21.4, and Devaughn Vele chipped in 14.4. Let’s not pretend Dillon earned it, though, because it took three injuries on the other side to get Dillon over the line: Lamar Jackson, Rashee Rice, and Ja’Marr Chase all went down for Cornstar, and Chase left with just 4.2 on the board. Lexi still got 28.8 from Javonte Williams and kept it within 17 with half the lineup in the trainer’s room, so the 2-2 rookie walks away with sympathy and Dillon walks away with an asterisk. A win is a win, but crawling over the finish line past a team that lost its quarterback and two top receivers isn’t the comeback story anyone’s going to frame. My Bold Prediction got caught in the crossfire, too, because Lamar’s 20.8 came up four points short of Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, and Vele combined, which means Dillon’s receiver room is technically alive.
Two-tenths of a point. Josh Jacobs Alibi beat One Big Beautiful Dill 145.2 to 145.0, and the margin was smaller than the gap between Kevin’s two quarterbacks, since Kevin started Matthew Stafford (9.6) over Justin Herbert (10.4) and got away with it anyway. Tetairoa McMillan’s 38.2 was the best individual game in the league, and it’s the only reason Kevin isn’t the one getting roasted in this paragraph. That honor goes to Grant, who put up 145 and lost while stranding 78.7 points on the bench, the most of anyone this week: Brian Robinson Jr. (25.2) and Romeo Doubs (20.8) sat and watched Jakobi Meyers (4.8) and the Broncos D/ST (1.0) start, and swapping in literally either of them wins the game. Grant is 1-3, and my “Grant makes the playoffs” call from last week now reads like a hostage note.
I hung my Upset Alert on an 8-1 series, and Trick or Trick It’s Mike Vick made it 8-2 with a 135.1 to 116.6 win, CeeDee Lamb going off for 32.8. The real story is at quarterback, because one week after benching Tyler Shough’s 27.8 to start Drake Maye, Nate flipped it, started Shough (16.9), and watched Maye throw 29.0 onto the bench, which means Nate has picked the wrong quarterback two weeks running and is somehow 2-2 anyway. I am dead inside got 22.2 from Jonathan Taylor and 17.0 from waiver add Ollie Gordon II, but Emeka Egbuka’s 2.3 sank any hope, and Trevor drops to 1-3 with the team name looking less like a joke every week.
Return of the IDP stayed perfectly on schedule, and the loss-win-loss-win calendar I teased in the preview cashed right on time with a 141.3 to 120.7 win over Swift kick in the Dak. Kyren Williams went for 31.7, and for once Jono got real help beyond Josh Allen, with Carnell Tate adding 17.0. Nico Collins finally showed up for Shawnee with 27.3 and it didn’t matter, because D’Andre Swift managed 6.4 and free-agent pickup Brycen Tremayne went into the lineup for a 4.2. The team that opened 2-0 has now dropped two straight, and the basement stairs aren’t nearly as far away as they looked a couple of weeks ago.
The receipts: the Game of the Week and the Lock both cashed, I went 3-for-6 straight up, and the Upset Alert has now bricked three weeks running, so consider that feature on probation. As for the hardware, Wade takes Team of the Week for killing the champ’s streak and grabbing first place on points. Grant gets Biggest Choke, because 145 points and a loaded bench should never add up to an L. Luke earns Sacko in Training for a 65 that got the week’s biggest beating, Kevin is the Lucky Bastard for winning by 0.2 with the wrong quarterback in the lineup, and Nate takes Bold Strategy for finding a brand-new way to start the wrong QB and winning anyway.
🏆 Awards
- Team of the Week — The People’s Commissioner — 144.8, the champ’s streak in the trash, and sole possession of first. Bryce Young truthers, this one’s for you.
- Biggest Choke — One Big Beautiful Dill — lost by 0.2 with Brian Robinson Jr. and Romeo Doubs combining for 46 points on the bench. The lineup was the opponent.
- Sacko in Training — 2x Runner Up — 65.4, a 57.8-point beating, and a third straight L. Saquon’s 1.5 is the whole story in one number.
- Lucky Bastard — Josh Jacobs Alibi — benched the better quarterback and still won by a rounding error. McMillan’s 38.2 bailed Kevin out.
- Bold Strategy — Trick or Trick It’s Mike Vick — last week benched the guy who went for 27.8, this week benched the guy who went for 29.0. Nate is 2-2 on vibes alone.
The Preview
Week 4 closes out the first quarter of the season: the champ is alone at 3-0, four teams are bunched at 2-1 trying to catch him, and one former Shiva is still looking for his first win. Time to price it, and I’ve got a grudge to settle with my own Upset Alert.
Gibbed for your pleasure brings the top projection on the board, a three-game win streak, and a waiver history that looks like the champ grabbed the wire with both hands. Gibbs, Puka Nacua, and Trevor Lawrence lead the charge, with Alvin Kamara straight off the free-agent pile and into the lineup. Across the field, The People’s Commissioner has won two straight, and Wade is starting Bryce Young again, a week after Jordan Love outscored him from the bench. Jack leads the series 8-5, so this has been a lopsided rivalry with Wade as the one taking the punches, and the model likes the champ. I don’t. This is the week Jack finally tastes an L, and it’s the commish who serves it.
Tuten Your Mom leads the league in total points and gets the cheapest date on the schedule. Burrow, Jeanty, Amon-Ra, and Skattebo are a nightmare on their own, and now Zach gets to start Josh Downs, the guy he pried out of Dillon’s hands. 2x Runner Up posted the week’s low score, missed his projection by forty, and now sits dead last in points. Luke won the whole thing two years ago, and right now he looks a lot more like a Sacko than a Shiva. Zach leads the series 12-8 and the model makes him a heavy favorite. Zach, and it’s not close.
First meeting, and it’s the rookie who’s favored, not the former champ. Cornstar just hung 134 on Luke and climbed three spots in my rankings behind Lamar Jackson and Ja’Marr Chase. The ChoSimba Ones are 0-2-1, the only winless team in the league, and coming off an 88. Dillon is a career .609 owner with a ring from 2018, and he’s starting two tight ends and Devaughn Vele against a rookie who keeps winning by double digits. Lexi teaches the old man a lesson.
This one’s personal, because I bought both of these guys last week and one of them has to lose. Josh Jacobs Alibi is last season’s runner-up, coming off a 92 in which Justin Jefferson gave him a 4.2. One Big Beautiful Dill is coming off the week’s high score, 161 behind Brock Purdy and a healthy Brock Bowers, and now adds Bijan Robinson to the mix. The model calls it dead even and the series sits 1-1, so somebody finally settles it. I’m riding the hot hand: Grant, and Kevin drops below .500.
The model loves Trick or Trick It’s Mike Vick here, with the second-best projection on the board, and Nate finally has Tyler Shough in the lineup, a week too late but better than never. The problem is I am dead inside, which owns this series 8-1. That isn’t a rivalry, that’s a landlord collecting rent. Trevor’s down to Jonathan Taylor and Drake London without Achane, and he’s back to Bo Nix after Kirk Cousins carried him to the win, so I’ll grant the roster is thinner. But 8-1 is 8-1. Trevor, and Nate can file the complaint with the league office.
Return of the IDP is a slight favorite over Swift kick in the Dak, and Jono leads the all-time series 8-5. Shawnee is the reigning Sacko, sitting 2-1 with Dak, James Cook, and D’Andre Swift, and she made me look silly last week when I tabbed her for an upset that never came. Jono’s season has gone loss, win, loss, so by his own calendar this is a good week, and Josh Allen and Christian McCaffrey don’t need much help to make it one. Jono, and Shawnee knows what she did.
So here’s the card. Wade vs Jack is the Game of the Week: first place against a two-game win streak, a series the champ has owned, and my call that the streak dies Sunday. The Lock is Zach, because he leads the league in points and the other side is averaging less than any team in the league. My Upset Alert has bricked two weeks running, so this week I’m going with the most lopsided history on the board: Trevor, 8-1 over Nate, and the model can keep its numbers. And the bold one: Lamar Jackson outscores Dillon’s entire starting receiver room.
🔮 Picks
- Game of the Week — The People’s Commissioner vs Gibbed for your pleasure — the unbeaten champ against a two-game winner, and I’m calling the streak’s end.
- Lock of the Week — Tuten Your Mom — the league’s top scorer against its bottom scorer. Set it, forget it.
- Upset Alert — I am dead inside — the model likes Nate, but Trevor owns him 8-1 and I’m not fighting history this week.
- Bold Prediction — Lamar Jackson outscores Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, and Devaughn Vele combined.
Power Rankings
Claude's subjective take on how the teams stack up heading into the week — weighing roster composition, recent matchups and scoring trends, key injuries, and any trades or pickups. Set at the start of the week, alongside the preview; the arrow shows the move from last week.
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1
—
Holds the top spot with the league's only perfect record and 133 a week. Wade gets the next crack.
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2
▲2
Up two on the league's best scoring average, and the record is finally catching up to the points.
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3
▼1
Slips one despite two straight wins, nudged aside by Zach's scoring. The champ is up next.
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4
▲1
Up one: the reigning Sacko is 2-1, averaging nearly 120, and nobody's laughing anymore.
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5
▲3
Up three after a 60-point beatdown of Luke. That's two double-digit wins in three weeks for the rookie.
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6
▲1
Up one in a loss, the Week 2 153 still propping up the average. Shough's finally in the lineup.
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7
▼4
The week's biggest faller, down four after a 92 with Jefferson managing just 4.2.
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8
▲4
The week's biggest climber, up four on a league-high 161 with Purdy and Bowers finally producing.
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9
▼3
Down three as the Allen roller coaster dips again, leaving him 1-2 and averaging 114.
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10
—
Holds at ten, still the only winless team left: a career .609 owner stuck on zero.
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11
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Stays put after finally getting a win, but losing Achane for the year made it a costly one.
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12
▼3
Down three to the basement with the league's worst scoring average and a 74 last week.